An independent, data-driven economic analysis rebutting the City's third-party report on the proposed 1250 West Avenue development and the Alton Beach Bayfront Overlay density and height bonuses.
The City of Miami Beach commissioned a third-party economic analysis to estimate the value the developer would realize from density and height bonuses requested under the Alton Beach Bayfront Overlay for the proposed 1250 West Avenue condominium. BusinessFlare® was engaged to independently review that analysis and provide an accurate, defensible assessment of the project's true economic and public-benefit dynamics.
Our review identified significant methodological flaws — arbitrarily inflated sellable square footage, unrealistic sales-price assumptions, and the omission of major development costs — that materially overstated the incremental value attributable to the bonuses. Working from verified Miami-Dade Property Appraiser transaction data and comprehensive project cost estimates, we recalculated the economics and quantified the public benefits delivered to the City.
BusinessFlare® served as the independent economic analyst, producing a transparent, market-grounded rebuttal report and executive summary submitted to the City of Miami Beach Planning Department to support informed public review of the entitlement request.
How a rigorous, market-grounded methodology corrected an inflated valuation and clarified the project's public value.
We conducted a comprehensive review of the City's third-party economic analysis, documenting specific methodological errors that distorted the estimated value of the requested density and height bonuses. The report inflated sellable square footage, assumed sale prices well above observed transactions, and omitted or understated fundamental development costs — each pushing the incremental valuation toward an unrealistic outcome.
Rather than rely on speculative pricing, we sourced condominium sales directly from the most recent Miami-Dade Property Appraiser Assessor File and validated them against recorded transactions. We broadened the comparable set beyond the narrow overlay district to premium luxury buildings across South Beach, ensuring adequate market depth and a defensible basis for pricing.
Accurate valuation requires accounting for the real costs of development. We incorporated land acquisition, realistic construction and soft costs, construction financing, sales and closing expenses, and the public-benefit obligations — categories the original report omitted or understated. We also provided a plain-language explanation of development financing and risk that the public rarely sees.
Instead of isolating bonus square footage in a vacuum, we evaluated the full project economics both with and without the requested bonuses — the only way to properly capture shared and fixed costs. The difference yields the true net benefit attributable to the bonuses: approximately $58 million, far below the inflated figure in the City's report.
Beyond the incremental value, we quantified the public benefits tied to the entitlement — park and Baywalk improvements, waterfront access, and strategic property acquisition — estimated at $40 to $50 million, consistent with City estimates. We also projected the recurring ad valorem revenue the completed project would generate for the City and other taxing authorities.